Will the EU introduce sanctions that target imports of fuels from India that were produced with Russian oil by the end of 2023?

Started Jun 28, 2023 06:33PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2023 05:00AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Seasons

Context
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed a series of sanctions against Russia including a ban on crude oil and refined petroleum products imported into the EU. The only exception to these restrictions is the transfer of crude oil by pipeline in EU countries that, due to their geographic location, are heavily dependent on Russia and have no viable alternative options.

Since the outbreak of the war and the EU’s oil ban, India has become the second biggest buyer of Russian crude oil after China importing 33 times more Russian oil in 2023 than the year before. The Indian government is buying large amounts of Russian oil at a heavily discounted rate, refining it, and selling that fuel to the EU and other Western economies at full-price. Since the diesel and kerosene being imported to the EU is now coming from India and not Russia, it has become a lucrative way to circumvent the sanctions and embargoes imposed on Russian oil.

The EU’s Foreign Affairs and Security Policy representative, Josep Borrell, said the EU will take action to address India’s reselling of Russian oil. “If diesel or gasoline is entering Europe . . . coming from India and being produced with Russian oil, that is certainly a circumvention of sanctions and member states have to take measures.”

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if a major news source, such as AP or Reuters, reports on or before December 31, 2023 that the EU has officially announced sanctions on imports of refined petroleum products from India that were made with Russian crude oil.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

The EU did not introduce sanctions targeting the imports of fuels from India that were produced with Russian oil in 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.30%
No 96.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009673
2.
-0.008697
3.
-0.007482
4.
-0.007139
5.
-0.004428

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username