Will the U.S. and EU resolve their dispute over electric vehicle tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act by April 28, 2023?

Started Feb 08, 2023 06:31PM UTC
Closed Apr 29, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Context
Since the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) became law earlier this year, EU leaders have raised concerns over the applicability of the bill’s electric vehicle (EV) tax credit only to vehicles made in North America. The EU argues that excluding European cars from the tax incentive is a protectionist measure. The bloc’s policymakers have spoken of potential retaliation with their own green subsidies bill to benefit European car companies. The U.S. wants to cooperate with the EU but is apprehensive about having to adjust its laws to accommodate the EU’s demands.
The transatlantic partners are currently discussing an exemption in the IRA that would allow the tax credit to include European EVs. On December 29, 2022 the U.S. Department of Treasury released a white paper indicating it would adopt an expansive definition of which countries have a “free trade agreement” with the U.S., which would help European car companies qualify for at least a portion of the credit. The EU welcomed the decision but said it still had concerns about the full $7,500 EV tax credit. Treasury will propose a more detailed rule on the tax credit in March of 2023.

Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve positively if the White House or a U.S. government agency announces that the U.S. and EU have agreed to make an exemption in the IRA that fully includes EVs from the EU in the tax credit incentive by April 28, 2023.

Further Reading
Resolution Notes

Neither the White House nor a U.S. government agency announced an exception for EU electric vehicles in the Inflation Reduction Act

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.56%
No 87.44%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 63
Average for questions older than 6 months: 45
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.102079
2.
-0.089426
3.
-0.087591
4.
-0.06047
5.
-0.044559

Consensus Trend

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