Will the European Union’s annual gross electricity imports from non-EU countries be at least 25% higher in 2026 than in 2023?
Started
Jan 23, 2026 07:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC
Challenges
Seasons
Context:
The European Union is still adjusting to the dual shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After a sharp drop in energy use and electricity demand in 2022–2023, the EU is now in a gradual recovery phase. At the same time, European policies such as REPowerEU and the revised Energy Efficiency Directive aim to reduce overall energy consumption, cut dependence on imported fossil fuels, and accelerate the expansion of domestic renewable power generation.
Several structural trends shape the outlook for electricity demand:
- Industry: Electrification of industrial processes and increased use of electric equipment gradually raise electricity needs, even as efficiency measures and possible de-industrialisation in some segments dampen demand.
- Residential and commercial sectors: Heat pumps, electric heating and cooling, and a growing stock of appliances add to power consumption, while insulation standards and efficiency regulations pull in the opposite direction.
- Transport: The rapid rollout of electric vehicles and electrified public transport shifts energy use from petroleum products to electricity, creating a new and growing load on the power system.
- Digital and AI sector: Data centres and AI-related high-performance computing are emerging as especially fast-growing electricity consumers. Training and running large AI models requires power-hungry server farms, and their demand is increasing much faster than average electricity demand in other sectors.
In parallel, the EU is adding large volumes of renewable generation (wind, solar and others) and upgrading grids in order to meet this rising electricity demand domestically and to keep imports limited. In many baseline scenarios, domestic low-carbon supply is expected to cover most of the additional demand, implying relatively stable or even declining net electricity imports over the coming years.
This question focuses on a scenario in which electricity demand in the EU grows faster than domestic generation capacity can be brought online (for example due to stronger-than- expected AI, industrial or transport electrification, or delays in new projects), forcing the EU to rely significantly more on imported electricity from non-EU neighbours. Electricity imports are chosen because they are measured transparently and consistently, unlike emerging flows of other energy carriers such as low-carbon hydrogen or synthetic fuels.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if official statistics (EUROSTAT) show that the European Union’s gross annual electricity imports from non-EU countries by the end of 2026, measured in gigawatt-hours (GWh), are at least 25% higher than in 2023, also measured in GWh.
Further Reading: