Will the United States have a higher aggregate growth rate than China in 2022?

Started Jun 15, 2022 03:02PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 10:59PM UTC
Seasons

Context:
While the Chinese government set a target of 5.5 % GDP growth at the 2022 National People’s Congress, it also warned of “many more risks and challenges” ahead. After the Covid-19 outbreaks all over China and long-standing lockdowns of cities such as Shanghai, many economists have downgraded their expectation with a median of around 4.5 %.
Predictions for American economic growth  settle around 3.7 %. Depending on unfolding developments in China, America could record a higher GDP growth rate for the first time since 1976. 


Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved via the IMF's 2022 reports on the People's Republic of China and the United States: a U.S. real GDP growth rate higher than China's will resolve this question positively.  

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

The U.S. economy grew by 2.1% in 2022 while the Chinese economy grew by 3.0%.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14.33%
No 85.67%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 20
Number of Forecasts 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 46
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.010596
3.
-0.007206
4.
-0.00701
5.
-0.006853

Consensus Trend

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