Will China build a new military base in Africa by the end of 2022?

Started Jun 15, 2022 02:43PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2022 05:00AM UTC
Challenges

Context:
In Djibouti in 2017, China opened its first permanent military base outside China. U.S. officials have warned against new bases, particularly on the Atlantic coast of Africa. Equatorial Guinea, Angola, and Namibia are the most frequently named countries as potential hosts for overseas Chinese bases.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved via the confirmation of the construction or completion of a new military base, or a deal for the creation of a new military base in any African country by an official announcement from either the Chinese or host country or 3 reputable news sources.

Further Reading:
Resolution Notes

According to government statements and reputable news sources, China did not begin construction on any new military base in Africa or agree to a deal to do so.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 28.42%
No 71.58%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 11
Number of Forecasts 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 23
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.678
2.
-0.632
3.
-0.538
4.
-0.176
5.
-0.11

Consensus Trend

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