Will the U.S. enter into a recession in 2024?
Started
Oct 25, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Context
U.S. inflation rates have fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June of 2022 to 3.7% in September of 2023 without a negative effect on the labor market or a recession in 2023. However, periods of too high inflation can often trigger a recession due to central banks tightening financial conditions and raising interest rates to cool spending and hiring, which increases unemployment. It is possible that the first half of 2024 will show the longer-term effects of inflation.
Additionally, a prolonged war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could cause steep oil prices and hurt the U.S. economy’s chances to avoid a recession in 2024.
Resolution Criteria
A recession will be defined in this question as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. This question will resolve positively if at any point the most recent data released by the OECD indicates that the U.S. has had two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
- A recession involving the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 would result in a POSITIVE resolution.
- A recession involving the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 would result in a NEGATIVE resolution. (The final data point for resolving the question will be the first estimate of the fourth quarter of 2024).
Further Reading