Sciences Po.

Under the title "Partner or Pariah: Redesigning the International Order in the Trump Era," the workshop explored how political forecasts can help better understand the development of transatlantic relations and support well-informed policy decisions. The event was opened by Mark Maloney, Executive Director and Vice Dean of PSIA, and Irene Braam, Executive

Director of the Bertelsmann Foundation in Washington, D.C.

The goal of the workshop was to provide students in the Master of Advanced Global Studies (MAGS) program with both theoretical knowledge and practical tools for developing political forecasts. Led by Tony Silberfeld (Bertelsmann Foundation) and Peter Walkenhorst (Bertelsmann Stiftung), the first day focused on the theoretical foundations of crowdsourced forecasting and introduced the forecasting platform RANGE.

The second day centered on the practical application of these methods and tools. Working in groups, the students discussed three different scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations, analyzed key drivers and signals, and then developed forecastable questions. These questions were subsequently discussed and evaluated.

RANGE (Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment) is a crowdsourced forecasting platform focused on geopolitics and transatlantic relations. Experts in international politics, practitioners, and—most importantly—an informed public contribute forecasts on the platform. RANGE was created by the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Bertelsmann Foundation in Washington, D.C. Its aim is to generate forecasts and translate them into analyses and recommendations for policymakers.

Are you interested in becoming a forecaster and improve your forecasting skills, then sign up here.