The session brought together nearly 30 participants from government space agencies, the commercial sector and think tanks to examine how national interests, private investment and international competition might shape future lunar activity.
To frame the discussion, experts introduced the core question: How will the intersection of power politics and commercialization influence the lunar exploration agenda? Three scenarios, developed with ESPI, provided starting points:
- Rival lunar coalitions: Strategic competition between the U.S. and China leads to competing governance models.
- China cislunar primacy: U.S. retrenchment allows China to set the rules for lunar access.
- Pluralistic lunar order: A mix of public and private initiatives fosters diverse partnerships and commercial activity.
Participants then worked in groups to identify “signposts” that would signal movement toward one scenario or another. These included Chinese investment in mining and transport, shifts in the U.S. Artemis budget, changes to ITAR regulations, the development of navigation systems and demand for rare earth elements.
The workshop culminated in a live forecasting exercise, where attendees assigned probabilities to key questions derived from the signposts. This process revealed both consensus and points of sharp disagreement, sparking further debate and reflection.
The results will now feed into the RANGE crowd forecasting platform, ensuring continued monitoring of lunar diplomacy trends and keeping the workshop’s insights alive beyond the event itself.